Correlation or Causation? Investigating Real-World Relationships

Introduction (10 minutes)

Correlation Confusion: Start with a brainstorming session. Ask students:
What does it mean when two things are correlated?
Can you think of examples of things that are correlated but don't necessarily cause each other? (e.g., ice cream sales and drowning incidents)
Causation vs. Correlation: Define and differentiate between correlation and causation:
Correlation: A statistical relationship between two variables, where changes in one variable tend to be associated with changes in the other.
Causation: A relationship where one variable directly causes a change in another variable.
Why it Matters: Discuss why it's important to distinguish between correlation and causation in various fields (e.g., science, health, economics, social sciences).
 

Activity 1: Exploring Types of Associations (15 minutes)

Introduce the Four Explanations: Present the four possible explanations for an observed association:
Predictor causes response: A causes B.
Response causes predictor: B causes A.
Lurking variable: C causes both A and B.
Random occurrence: The association is due to chance.
Real-world Examples: Provide examples of each type of association. Encourage students to brainstorm their own examples.
Class Discussion: Discuss the challenges in determining causation, especially the role of lurking variables and the importance of considering alternative explanations.
 

Activity 2: Analyzing a Case Study (20 minutes)

Choose a Scenario: Select one of the real-world scenarios from the project list or a current event that involves a potential correlation.
Group Investigation: Divide students into groups and provide them with relevant data or resources (articles, graphs, studies) related to the chosen scenario.
Guided Analysis: Guide students to:
Analyze the data and identify the type of correlation (if any).
Explore the four possible explanations for the observed association.
Discuss the potential for lurking variables or alternative explanations.
Draw conclusions about whether the relationship is likely causal or correlational.
 

Wrap-up (5 minutes)

Reflect on Learning: Discuss the key takeaways from the lesson.
Project Introduction: Introduce the correlation vs. causation project, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking and evidence-based reasoning.
 

Assessment:

Observe student participation in discussions.
Assess their understanding of the concepts through their contributions to the group activity and their responses to questions.
Use the project rubric to evaluate their ability to apply the concepts in their independent research.

extension: Challenge them to analyze more complex scenarios with multiple variables and potential causal pathways. Encourage them to research statistical methods for controlling for confounding variables.
differentiation: Provide simplified scenarios with clear visual aids. Offer sentence starters or graphic organizers to help them structure their analysis and explanations.

Use the assessment criteria listed at the end of the project packet to assess student learning outcomes.